Stock Market Blog with Henry Ford

Friday 02/03/12

02.3.12 MARKET OPEN at 10:46 AM EST

Tradesrs hit the Trifecta this morning with blowout jobs increase, unemployment drop to 8.3% and another blowout ISM number.
VIX has dropped down to 17 area indicating complacency on the part of investors leaving them open for pullbacks.

We DID decisively break through the 1328 SP500 resistance level that has been a barrier to higher prices, but it is important that we see this level hold into the closee, thus insuring the 'GoldenCross" that pundits have been hyping for weeks.

We believe that we are in for a pretty good spring into May or even later, but there is going to have to be a pullback here somewhere. More than likely news related.

Henry Ford
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Wednesday 02/01/12

02.01.12 Market update at 02:02 PM EST

We briefly exceeded the 1328 on the SP500 boundry, but as we all know it's the close that counts and we are overbought with a very low VIX (complacent investors) at this point.

This trading range runs from a low of 1300 to 1328 and a confirmed break either way could see a melt-up or melt-down.
If we break the lower boundry look for a pullback to 1267 area which would form a great launching pad for a continuation rally which could take us into late May.

End of the year should be another hot period as we go into elections so all in all do expect a good year with a few bumps along the way.

Henry

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" Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed...."-Henry Ford

Henry Ford
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Monday 01/30/12

01.30.12 Morning Update at 10:49 AM EST

Markets are trying hard to stay above the psychological support of 1300 on the SP500.
Logical to see some pullback today as we consolidate for another push back up.

Henry Ford
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Thursday 01/26/12

01/26/12 Pre-Market at 09:27 AM EST

Some big movers this morning as the 'Risk on" trade has returned after the FEDs statement yesterday that they will keep interest rates fixed until at least late 2014.

Money is flowing into the stock market this morning and performance is being rewarded in such things as badly beaten NFLX and traditional blue chips like CAT as well.

The dollar came under pressure last night and the EURO gained overnight fueling the rally.

Henry Ford
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Tuesday 01/24/12

01.24.12 AAPL Earnings Tonight at 11:33 AM EST

The long awaited AAPL earnings event will take place this afternoon after the bell. There is no doubt that earnings will be smashing, only the degree to which they blow everyone away. Here is a chart that I put on twitter last night which displays the analysts vs the independent's projections. The analysts are generally low and the independents closer to the mark.

The biggest reason for the difference is the analysts want to be seen as conservative so that their customers aren't disappointed. The independents don't care and are much more concerned with getting as close to the number as possible.(except for last quarter when analysts missed completely...not AAPL but the analysts estimates).

Here is the full chart of the summary given above and you can see the range behind the numbers:

It will be interesting to see who ends up closest to the mark.

This morning AAPL shares are down ahead of the announcement, which I view as a good sign. I prefer NOT to see a huge move going into the announcement which then begs for an immediate round of profit-taking. I think there is a lot of that going on this morning as players who got burned last time by the street's prognosticators capture some of those earlier losses by taking their marbles home.

Still, I do expect to see a gap up and with our short term options positions will be looking for an exit ourselves, having set up some weeks ago by buying short term options to offset any pullback in our long term leap positions after the announcement.

For those who are not as risk tolerant I would never criticize those who decide to take some or all of their short term profits before the bell and I would never feel bad about taking a profit.

Within the coming quarter we will have the iPad 3 as the next market driver, estimated to be announced next month, ready for distribution in March.

Tonight we will see competition from two fronts for attention:

1. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its monetary policy decision at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by the release at 2:00 p.m. ET of the FOMC participants' federal funds rate projections for the first time, accompanied by updated quarterly economic assumptions. Then at 2:15 p.m. ET, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a news conference to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and projections.

2. The State of the Union Address this evening. While there could be negatives, I believe this will primarily be a sales pitch for the next election by the President, ie struggles ahead, but slow progress and another 4 years under his leadership to "finish" the job.

While both of these events may well play into the volatility of the market in general which has seen 10 up days out of the last 14, I believe that AAPL will be operating under its own rules and we should see a sharp upside open tomorrow.

For those who take some off the table today feel confident in your decision and don't look back, there will be another opportunity next quarter.

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" Fear is the darkroom where negatives are developed...."-Henry Ford