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Friday 07/16/10
07.16.10 MORNING UPDATE at 11:20 AM EST

Today we are paying for the lack of volatility during expirations week that was missing this time around.

This morning the cause du jour was the Michigan Sentiment report that came in at 66 vs. and expected 74. That was enough to offset the BP good fortune as well as the settlement from Goldman Sachs...The Government is crowing that it made GS "fess up and pay the piper" with a better than half a billion dollar fine...except..that amount equals 14 days of profits for the mega banker....BIG DEAL.

The prospect of Financial Regulation coming out of Congress has financial stocks on the run as well, even though there are so many loopholes and exceptions that they can just work their way around the problems like they always have...

Do I sound skeptical? Not really I just subscribe to the theory that "seeing is disbelieving!"

Thank goodnes today is July 16 and in 15 days congress will go on their summer break and give all of us a break.

Here is a piece I wrote a couple of years ago which is true now more than ever as it got me to thinking about the relationship between Markets and Congress once again. For those of you who missed it the first time around...

A few years ago I found a fascinating bit of trivia that seems to be supported by a paper that you can download HERE..."Congress and the Stock Market"

I'll give you the short version....
As Will Rogers said:
"This country has come to feel the same when Congress is in session as we do when a baby gets hold of a hammer.
It's just a question of how much damage he can do with it before we take it away from him."

In the paper it notes that if $1.00 were invested in the DOW, in January of 1897, and withdrawn when Congress was "in" session ... (If you invest in the DOW when Congress is OUT of session, and in cash when it's IN session)....(noting Will Rogers' comment), then by the year 2000 you'd have a portfolio worth $216.10 and ...

If you only invested when Congress was in session and went to cash when they went boondoggling on the other hand...

You'd end up with $2.00


Markets love it when Congress cannot enact new laws, pass new taxes, or spend your money as evidenced by this phenom. Some people also ascribe the rising markets in election years to the same theory and there would seem to be substance. With both parties paralyzed going into the election because they don't want to take any risks that would offend voters, there is little that Wall Street has to worry about.

Henry Ford
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